RVIA Lowers 2026 RV Wholesale Shipment Forecast
HERNDON, VA – RV wholesale shipments in May continued the year’s downward trend, affecting the 2026 shipment forecast. According to the RV Industry Association’s (RVIA) May 2026 wholesale shipment report, wholesale shipments were down 18.7 percent in May while year-to-date shipments were down 14.4 percent. RVIA has since lowered its 2026 wholesale shipment forecast to a median of 314,000 units. The association says softer consumer demand is driving the revision, which it attributes to economic headwinds, continued inflation, and market uncertainly, even as the industry’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. The motorhome market, however, is a noted outlier, experiencing a small 2.2-percent, year-over-year uptick in shipments for May.
Summer Forecast Lowers 2026 Expectations
RVIA announced the revised projection in its Summer 2026 RV RoadSigns forecast, prepared by ITR Economics. The quarterly report now projects between 300,000 and 328,100 wholesale shipments in 2026, with a median of 314,000 units. That median would represent an 8.2 percent decline from the 342,200 RVs shipped in 2025.
The Summer outlook replaces RVIA’s Spring 2026 RV RoadSigns forecast, released in March. The earlier report projected between 328,800 and 367,000 wholesale shipments, with a median of 349,000 units. At the time, RVIA expected modest growth over the previous year’s total. The latest projection instead places the midpoint about 35,000 units below the Spring estimate.
RV RoadSigns is updated quarterly as new industry data and economic conditions become available. The shift between the Spring and Summer editions shows how quickly expectations changed after a weaker start to the selling season.
Towable Shipments Drop, Motorhomes See Small Rise
The May shipment report shows manufacturers shipped 22,900 RVs during the month, compared with 28,150 units a year earlier. Through the first five months of 2026, wholesale shipments totaled 138,160 units, down from 161,373 during the same period in 2025.
All towable RV shipments were down 21.3 percent in May, finishing the month at 19,679 units. Motorhome shipments moved in the opposite direction, increasing 2.2 percent year over year to 3,221 units. Within the towable category, conventional travel trailers were down 16.4 percent, while fifth-wheel shipments were down 38.1 percent.
Towables account for most monthly RV shipments, so their performance has a large effect on the industry’s overall totals. The motorhome increase offered a positive counterpoint, but it was not large enough to offset the decline in the higher-volume towable segment.
Economic Pressures Weigh on Buyers
RVIA president and CEO Craig Kirby says economic headwinds and tighter household budgets are contributing to the more cautious outlook. In the summer forecast announcement, Kirby points to higher financing costs, continued inflation, and increased uncertainty as reasons some consumers are delaying discretionary purchases.
Those pressures matter across the RV market because financing costs can affect monthly payments, while broader household expenses influence whether buyers move forward with a major recreational purchase. RVIA’s revised forecast reflects those near-term constraints without suggesting that interest in RV travel has disappeared.
Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Strong
Despite the lower 2026 RV wholesale shipment forecast, RVIA says the fundamentals supporting RV ownership and travel remain strong. The association says consumers continue to value the freedom and flexibility of RVing, particularly as a way to spend time outdoors and travel on their own schedules.
The Summer forecast therefore points to a more cautious year than RVIA expected in March, rather than a permanent change in the appeal of RV travel. Additional monthly shipment reports and future RV RoadSigns updates will show whether demand strengthens during the second half of 2026 or whether the industry remains near the lower end of the revised range.
Gabriel Rivero
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